集合卡曼滤波算法对FARSITE模型林火蔓延预测的修正效果研究

针对火源位置输入偏差导致的FARSITE林火行为模型火线预测不准确的问题,提出了一种基于集合卡曼滤波算法的动态修正方法。利用FARSITE对复杂工况下的林火蔓延过程进行数值模拟,以火线位置为待修正参量,以均方根误差(RMSE)为评价指标,对算法的可行性进行了验证,并研究了算法的集合元素个数,观测数据标准差及同化频率对FARSITE预测偏差的修正效果的影响。结果表明:算法能显著提高FARSITE火线预测精度;逐时同化时:集合元素个数为5 时,算法的修正效果并不理想,随着集合元素个数增大,样本误差减小,修正效果得到改善,但增大到30以上时, 修正能力的提升就不再明显;观测数据标准差大小与RMSE值呈正相关;给定条件下当同化频率由1 h/次降低至2 h/次,整个模拟时长内的误差仍能得到较好控制,RMSE曲线并不会过快增长。     

The Impact of Global NGOs on Japanese Press Coverage of Climate Negotiations: An Analysis of the New “Background Media Strategy”

This article assesses the success of WWF Japan’s “Background Media Strategy” in influencing Japanese mainstream news outlets’ coverage of climate change negotiations. WWF Japan adopted this “Background Media Strategy” after the Bali COP in 2007; instead of lobbying, it aims to build journalists’ expertise. This article examines its success after seven years through three research approaches: the analysis of participant lists; two surveys (conducted in 2009 and 2015); and a content analysis of climate change articles that appeared in four large mainstream newspapers between April and July 2015. Based on these different data, the author concludes that the new media strategy was successful: Japanese journalists increasingly rely on information provided by WWF Japan and less on information provided by the government and industry. This experiment suggests that a new relationship between global NGOs and the media can improve environmental communications—an approach that could help advocacy groups around the world.     

城市污水处理厂剩余污泥热值测定方法优化研究

目前的城市污水处理厂剩余污泥热值的测定主要参考煤热值的测定方法。根据污泥的特性,对热值测定过程中污泥的干燥方式、助燃剂的影响和热值校正计算3个方面进行了优化研究。结果表明,冷冻干燥(-50℃)能够避免污泥有机物的挥发,从而精确地测定剩余污泥的热值;对于有机物含量较高的污泥(VS/TS>0.57),不添加助燃剂也能准确测定污泥的热值;通过测定氧弹洗液中硫酸和硝酸的含量来计算热值校正,从而准确得到污泥的热值。     

基于人员心理-环境因素的火灾疏散速度修正方法研究

为探究人在火灾环境下的行为心理对疏散效率的影响，基于火灾下人员行为心理特征具有复杂、抽象、难以直接量化的特性，通过模糊逻辑方法，应用模糊集合、模糊规则和隶属度函数量化人的行为心理，研究其对疏散速度的影响；考虑火灾烟气和群体行为对疏散的影响，通过对高层建筑火灾状况下的烟气进行数值分析，并运用公式法得出人员的疏散速度折减值；以某高层商业建筑火灾疏散为例，将修正后人员的疏散速度和疏散路径引入疏散分析并与未修正的结果进行比较。结果表明:未修正的商业建筑疏散时间为470 s，修正后的疏散时间为670 s，修正后的疏散时间更长，人员危险性更大。     

基于风险修正的城市安全风险评估方法及应用*

为推动实现城市安全风险的系统化、信息化管理，基于我国城市安全风险管理的要求与特点，总结城市安全风险评估的分层分类原则、突出固有风险原则和合理修正原则等基本原则；提出“点位-行业-区域”逐层展开的城市安全风险评估程序，明确各层级的评估要点；提出城市安全风险评估方法，分别制定点位、行业风险修正规则，结合风险参数与情景构建开展基于风险矩阵法的点位风险评估和行业风险评估，采用加权计算法由行业风险评估结果叠加评估区域风险。结果表明:该方法能够从不同角度有效评估城市的风险状态，为不同层级的城市安全管理者明确风险管控重点提供决策依据。     

长江经济带国土空间纠错实施机制——以江苏省仪征市和张家港市为例

国土空间纠错是自然资源管理部门落实“统一行使所有国土空间用途管制职责”的重要手段,是国土空间管控和治理的重要内容。以江苏省仪征市和张家港市为例,探究国土空间错配类型、表现形式及成因,尝试构建国土空间纠错实施机制,以期为长江经济带国土空间用途管制制度构建提供理论和实践参考。研究结果表明：（1）国土空间错配类型主要有：因规划欠合理、规划缺乏、规划冲突引起的错配,城镇、农业、生态三大空间现状用途错配,因劳动力、资本、土地错配及环境规制要求引起的行业错配,因资源过度利用或低效利用引起的强度错配。（2）针对不同错配类型,可从建立“三线”协调机制、构建“全流程、多主体、多路径”分类纠错机制、完善国土空间用途管制制度、建立国土综合整治和生态修复保障机制及动态监管机制等角度入手,构建国土空间纠错机制体系。研究结果可为长江经济带国土空间纠错、国土空间用途管制、国土空间优化提供理论和实践参考。     

空调假人温度修正试验研究

目的使空调假人得到的温度数据更加接近真实数值。方法采集相同环境下真人衣服表面温度与空调假人的温度,并将二者的数据进行对比和拟合。结果揭示了空调假人温度与真人衣服表面温度之间的关系,将二者的关系拟合为二次方程,得到了空调假人温度修正公式,使空调假人温度数据更接近真人衣服表面的实测温度数据。结论对比发现,空调假人所采集的温度数据与真人温度数据有较大不同。得到的修正公式可用于基于空调假人的热舒适性评价,可以提高热舒适性计算的准确性。与传统方法相比,该方法计算简便,有利于工程中的实际应用。     

Aerosol optical properties and the mixing state of black carbon at a background mountainous site in Eastern China

In-situ measurements of aerosol optical properties were conducted at Mt. Huang from September 23 to October 28, 2012. Low averages of 82.2, 10.9, and 14.1 Mm~(-1) for scattering coefficient(σ_(sp, neph, 550)), hemispheric backscattering coefficient(σ_(hbsp, neph, 550)), and absorption coefficient(σ_(ap, 550)), respectively, were obtained. Atmospheric aging process resulted in the increase of σap, 550 but the decrease of the single scattering albedo(ω_(550)) at constant aerosol concentration. However, the proportion of non-light-absorbing components(non-BCs) was getting higher during the aging process, resulting in the increase of aerosol diameter, which also contributed to relatively higher σ_(sp, neph, 550) and ω_(550). Diurnal cycles of σ_(sp, neph, 550) and σ_(ap, 550) with high values in the morning and low values in the afternoon were observed closely related to the development of the planetary boundary layer and the mountain-valley breeze. BC mixing state, represented by the volume fraction of externally mixed BC to total BC(r), was retrieved by using the modified Mie model.The results showed r reduced from about 70% to 50% when the externally mixed non-BCs were considered. The periodical change and different diurnal patterns of r were due to the atmospheric aging and different air sources under different synoptic systems. Local biomass burning emissions were also one of the influencing factors on r. Aerosol radiative forcing for different mixing state were evaluated by a "two-layer-single-wavelength" model,showing the cooling effect of aerosols weakened with BC mixing state changing from external to core-shell mixture.     

中、英、美污染场地风险评估导则异同与启示

近年来,随着国家"退二进三"旧城改造政策的实施,全国几乎所有的大中城市正面临着大批多种污染行业企业的关闭和搬迁,这些搬迁企业遗留场地都存在着不同程度的环境与健康风险.开展定量评估人体健康与生态环境风险是建立我国工业污染场地管理体系不可缺少的技术手段,也是适合我国国情并走向可持续性(绿色)土壤与地下水修复及综合环境管理的...     

中国第1个天线时域近场测量系统

介绍了天线近场测量的历史以及中国第1个天线时域近场测量系统的建立过程和系统组成.指出时基修正和幅度修正技术是天线近场测量由理论向工程实际转化的关键技术,介绍了修正系统的构成和基本计算方法,并给出了修正前后测量结果的对比.在频域近场技术的背景下对时域近场的技术特点进行了分析,指出了天线时域近场测量技术的独到之处和应用前景.